One of the conventionally accepted reasons for the unprecedented hedge fund underperformance in 2014 was that the vast majority of the “smart money” left 2013 and entered 2014, just as the 10Y looked set to decisively break out above 3%, long equities, expressed primarily via the Nikkei which went nowhere for most of the year until in November…
After six years of a mostly uninterrupted bull market, some would say that U.S. stocks are currently priced to deliver lackluster returns in the times ahead. However, equities have been displaying solid fundamentals backed by a strongly rebounding economy, which may point to a good year for stocks in 2015. Last year was marked by…
Last week’s wild trading defied any simple explanation. That always sets the table for pundit pontification! We are still a week away from earnings season. Bond, stock and commodity prices are moving in different directions. I expect this divergence to be a focus of attention, with many asking: Is the Bond Market Sending a Message about…
The Euro has not had the strongest of starts to 2015 with the currency falling from 1.2088 to the Dollar to stand at 1.1815 having been as low as 1.1763 on Thursday. There appear to be two or three reasons underlying the current weakness of the single currency. The specter of fresh Greek crisis is now center…
Hemisphere Energy Corp. (HME.V) drills for liquid oil in Canada. They are fortunate that Canada is such a friendly place for extractive enterprise. Canada remains favorably ranked in both the Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index (10th out of 175) and the Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom (6th out of 178). Their CEO is a geologist, which I like to…
Just when I thought I had finally gotten out they pull me back in. Matt Yglesias, Tyler Cowen, and Kevin Drum have noticed that US GDP growth picked up exactly when US austerity stopped (as I noted here). The pattern is so strong that it looks similar even though Yglesias, Drum and I graph different variables. I just…
Taking a fundamental approach to investment is not easy. It requires quite a lot of investigative work, number crunching, and the application of careful judgment. For many young analysts the process can feel overwhelming and it’s hard to know where to start. After 10 years of doing fundamental analysis, I thought it would be…
Unlike a number of other nations – especially some countries in Europe – the US is currently not dealing with general price declines. However, the risks of such an occurrence have increased materially. This for example can be seen in the intermediate-term market-based inflation expectations, which have fallen to 2009 levels – when deflation was…
When it comes to the US labor force, while the schism between full- and part-time workers has finally made the mainstream and will be even more acute in 2015 when the full impact of Obamacare forces most small and medium business to reallign their workforce, another even more important shift is taking place in the…
Welcome to edition 238 of Insider Weekends. Insider buying increased significantly last week with insiders buying $104.71 million of stock compared to $18.4 million in the week prior. Selling also increased with insiders selling $728.27 million of stock last week compared to $258.37 million in the week prior. The majority of the insider buying was related to biotech investors Baker…
