There are two ways of seeing the world: You can look at the small details, possibly missing the larger picture. This is often called mental accounting. Or, you could only look at the larger picture, possibly missing important details. This is often called the illusion of attention. In The Invisible Gorilla, authors Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons give…
Blue Line 4 Week Average The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 280,000 to 297,000 (consensus 290,000) vs the 294,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 290,750 (reported last week as 290,750) to…
Here’s the second part of Robert Williams’ Wall Street Daily interview with Peter Schiff. They discuss what the supposed recovery looks like to everyday Americans, and why the next crisis is going to be a dollar crisis. Listen to the first part here. Click HERE to Listen to the Interview HERE Highlights from Peter’s interview: “The…
Markit reports the Eurozone Retail PMI shows further drop in sales at year-end. Key Points: Retail sales fall at faster rate in December Rates of contraction accelerate in France and Italy , while growth eases in Germany Wholesale price inflation remains close to November’s recent low Summary: Latest PMI® data from Markit showed deteriorating trends with in…
Volatility Warning Signs Since the end of the Federal Reserve’s latest QE program, market volatility has picked up markedly. Since October, as QE came to its final bond buying conclusion, the drain of liquidity begin to financial market activity. As shown in the chart below, there have been three fairly sizable selloffs last quarter of…
I’ve posted before my thoughts‘ on the total irrelevance of the “Shiller PE” and since I’ve seen it popping up again out there recently, I thought I’d review it again…. The short version for those who do not want to read the whole post is that FAS 157 (2007) has skewed earnings so materially that any…
Introduction We think of oil exporting countries as financially sound with significant international reserves. And this is certainly valid for most of the Middle East sheikhdoms. But there are other exporters where the oil price drop will have a major impact. Below, the economic impact of lower oil prices on the leading exporters is examined….
The Euro continues to push further into the loss category, now extending losses against the U.S. Dollar and striking a 9-year trough in European trade, as speculation increases that the European Central Bank will need to embark on a massive easing program in order to stave off deflation. The latest data from the Eurozone has…
The price of crude has collapsed by 50% in a few months (and 40% since the end of QE3), which can only mean one thing: the Wall Street penguin brigade is out in full force with its spate of energy sector downgrades, none of which is more bombastic than that of Citigroup’s Robert Morris who…
Don’t bother reading the recent Fed minutes. I’ll save you the trouble. All of the Fed speak in there about the economy and inflation is meaningless. As I outlined last month (see “Stock Market Tail Wags Fed Dog”), the main determinant of Fed policy in recent years has not been economic data but the short-term machinations…
