The crash in oil prices has an obvious winner – consumers. All over the world, people are celebrating the New Year and cheaper energy prices. The price of gasoline is approaching a bargain basement $1.50 per gallon in parts of Oklahoma. Nationwide, prices should fall to around $2 in the early part of…
This is a pointless follow up post to this post which got some attention. As suggested by New Keynesian models, the old post considered G — government consumption plus investment. Here I am going to look at total expenditures (including transfers) and total revenues. Also I will consider only the Federal Government (due to FRED incompetence). There…
Source: Wikipedia Dear Diary, The Dow fell hard on the first real day of trading in 2015 – down 331 points, or 1.9%. And US crude oil fell below $50 a barrel, as pumpers kept on pumping to try to keep up with their debt service costs. We don’t know if this heralds bad…
An Air of Inevitability One thing recent years have shown is certainly that currency markets have a tendency to overshoot and trend very consistently in the same direction. Sentiment and positioning analysis has in some cases failed to work with unwavering regularity. In fact, it didn’t even help much if fundamentals were not necessarily in…
In a moment we will provide our answer to this interesting question. The correction in the price of gold and silver is now in its fourth year, and in the words of W. D. Gann: “When time is up – price will turn.” Featured is the weekly gold chart. The current bull market began…
If you do not believe that we are heading directly toward another major financial crisis, you need to read this article. So many of the exact same patterns that preceded the great financial collapse of 2008 are happening again right before our very eyes. History literally appears to be repeating, but most Americans seem absolutely…
After the drama in 2013 investors were hoping that gold would make a comeback in 2014. Now that the year is over we can easily state that this did not happen and look at the chart below, it is clear that the gold price has spent some time under water. For a considerable…
Data from the Swiss National Bank today confirms what the market has suspected. It intervened in size to defend its cap against the euro last month. The details are not yet available, but on an IMF reporting basis, the SNB said that its reserves rose to CHF495.1 bln (~$490.2 bln) from CHF462.7 bln in…
Those waiting to see if the crude crash would lead to any sizable adverse impact on the US trade deficit in November, as lower production led to higher imports if only on paper, the answer is yes, but in the opposite direction: instead of increasing or dropping just marginally from October’s $43.4 billion (to the…
Imagine someone gives you a $100 bill and tells you to buy dinner – but without saying where or what you should order. For some people, it would be enough for the entire meal, including the drinks and the tip, but for others it would be gone before the entrée arrives at the table. How…
