The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to trend lower through December. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is now projected to earn an annualized 3.6% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts,…
Oil prices are tumbling with Brent approaching $51 and WTI near $48.5. This follows yesterday’s announcement by Saudi Arabia of deeper discounts next month for the US and Europe. This was seen as a further confirmation that it adheres to its market share strategy. The continued drop in oil prices is spurring…
It is impossible for everyone to sell at the top before the implosion; the assets are owned by someone all the way down. The central bank/state plan for 2015 is a continuation of the same plan that’s been in play since 2009: drive everyone with any cash or capital into ruinously risky bets. The problem for…
I have been warning that the analysis portraying we were headed into hyperinflation was really nonsense. That entire idea was constructed only on the hyperinflation of Germany with old-school ideas of money. Much of those theories were antiquated in 1971 when we moved to the floating exchange rate system, yet the overwhelming…
“Some folks are selling stocks…” and, according to The White House, President Obama is closely monitoring it. As The Hill reports, despite the meme that lower-oil-prices-are-unequivocally-good-news-for-Americans, the Obama administration is monitoring whether the fall in oil prices is affecting the US stock market. Just over 5 years ago, President Obama explained to the American public that “profit and earning ratios are…
Headquartered in Philadelphia, Radian Group (RDN) provides private mortgage insurance, risk-management products and real estate services to financial institutions. The company has three business segments: 1) Mortgage Insurance, 2) Financial Guaranty and 3) Mortgage and Real Estate Services. Excellent Third Quarter Results and Rising Estimates Radian reported its Q3 2014 results on November 7. Net income for the…
If you want to know where the global experiment in massive money printing is heading—-just take a look at the monetary madhouse in Europe. And that particular phrase has full resonance once again as it becomes more apparent by the hour that Europe and the Euro were not fixed at all. Indeed, beneath the surface…
Earlier today (Monday Jan. 5), when we were conducting a routine check with the Office of the Currency Comptroller’s on the total notional amount of derivatives held at the Big 4 banks in the context of the “JPMorgan break up” story, we found something stunning: using the latest, just released Q3 OCC data, JPMorgan (JPM)…
Equity markets around the globe have tumbled on Monday, led by commodity-linked shares as oil prices fell to 5-1/2-year lows and investors fled to the safety of government bonds. The so-called “smart money” is running into bonds and this is what we need to complete the bubble in bonds that will burst for BIG…
Another solid year for U.S. equities came to a close. But it’s not like everyone is jumping up and down with enthusiasm, which is a good thing. With plenty of bogeymen in the closet and under the bed, there is little in the way of irrational exuberance. Although some commentators noted that 2014 finished up…
