by Rob Isbitts, Sungarden Investment Research 2014 is behind us. And since we tend to not want to do things the way the Wall Street herd does, our 2015 outlook is formatted this way: we list a group of potential scenarios, and then assign our “best guess” probability that they will happen next year. This is about…
Semiconductors form the basis of virtually all other technology-based devices. The industry therefore drives, enables and indicates the technological progress of an economy. Developments in the industry determine the way we work, commute, communicate, entertain ourselves and respond to our environment. The PCs we work on, the cars we drive, the phones we use, the…
The pros are back from vacation and ready for a new year of punditry! While there is a normal flow of news and a full trading week, I expect the financial media to focus on the New Year. That means an emphasis on slogans and seasonality. Trader lore views January as including special predictive powers:…
<< Read: Variables For An Effective Demand Limit To The Business Cycle Part 1 << Read: New Variable For Effective Demand Limit Part 2 << Read: New Variable For Effective Demand Limit Part 3 For those who have read this series of posts, you have seen the evolution of an Effective Demand model. At the end of this post, you decide…
What “wall of worry”? Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Sentiment Indicator has reached 11 on the Spinal Tap amplifier of euphoric positioning… As Goldman warns… Sentiment Indicator ranks net futures positioning versus the past 12 months. Readings below 10 or above 90 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns. Trade accordingly…
In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI reports last week were for the most part disappointing, as Italian manufacturing contraction unexpectedly accelerated (PMI < 50), while the French manufacturing sector has been in contraction mode for months now. With these poor manufacturing reports in the euro area, falling global commodity prices (see post), falling inflation expectations (see…
It’s time to look back to the best and the worst of 2014. Here, we’ll do a quick recap of the ETFs that rocked and flopped this year with the ups and downs in the global economy and resulting flow and ebb in the investing world. It’s important to start off by saying that the…
The U.S. Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 12/31/2014 was $3.0bn bringing the December Surplus to $14bn and the full year 2014 deficit to $607bn…a $102bn improvement over 2013’s $709bn cash deficit. I’ll have more next week, but for the year, revenues were up 5.2% and outlays were up 1.6%. 2014 was the 5th straight year of deficit…
We’ll have new specific ideas coming soon, but the basic themes for investors remain consistent. Entering 2015, there are several key ideas for individual investors to keep in mind. Republicans will formally take control of both the House and the Senate in a few short days – resist the temptation to wax political. Instead, think about…
by George Cook, The Conversation Department stores and other brick-and-mortar retailers registered another lackluster holiday shopping season, while online sales have remained upbeat since Cyber Monday. As more consumers spend a larger share of their dollars online, does this signal the days of shopping at department stores and shopping malls are numbered? Cyber Monday…
