You will have to forgive me for a very short post because: (a) I am usually spoiled to have Jack to a nice long post in the morning, (b) my fingers are ice-cold from my pre-dawn dog walk, and I can barely type. Anyway, as delighted as I am to see gold’s strength, I would…
The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for October 2014 (released today) year-over-year rate of home price growth slowed from 4.8% (reported as 4.9% last month) to 4.5%. 20 city unadjusted home price rate of growth decelerated 0.3% month-over-month. [Econintersect uses the change in year-over-year growth from month-to-month to calculate the change in rate of growth] Case-Shiller no…
Written by Gary Premarkets were down 0.4% at one point with pundits pointing to various reasons, none of which made any sense. Markets opened down 0.2% and traded sideways for the first 15 minutes. By 10 am the averages were trending down on spurts of heavy red volume, but ultimate session direction remains in doubt. Our…
The Santa Claus rally, coined by The Stock Trader’s Almanac, is the performance of the S&P500 in the “last 5 trading days of the year AND the first two of the New Year.” That means this year it is the performance from the close on 12/23. This morning’s USDJPY-driven (home-prices helped) weakness has sent the Dow and…
There are many things behind the decline in the euro that pushed from $1.40 in early May to fresh two-year lows yesterday. Chief among those reasons, we posit, is the diverging trajectory of monetary policy. The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the euro-dollar exchange rate (yellow line) and the discount Germany pays under the US to…
See how long the S&P 500 has historically taken to revert to fair value Te stock market appears to be overvalued by more than 20% One data-driven formula that determines whether you should buy now or wait for a better price The S&P 500 is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 20.28. The long-term…
Readers often ask me if now is a good time to buy a house. This question has appeared in my inbox for the past nine years, as the Housing Bubble reached its climax, burst, and an Echo Bubble arose in its place. It’s a tough question, as you know, for reasons that are inherent to buying…
The US never hesitated to buy back government debt and is now profiting from its decisiveness. The American economy has grown strong and healthy again, while the European Central Bank is still trying to figure things out. One reason why the ECB is hesitant has been underlined by German economist, Daniel Gros. He…
Since 2010, our top scoring weekly has outpaced the SPX by a median 328 bps in the following year. The best performers from our list one year ago are AGN up 91%, MAR up 61%, and DPS up 54%. The top scoring large cap sector is healthcare. The best large cap industry is healthcare plans….
During the early December correction that set the stage for the Santa rally, we (being NFTRH) watched the Russell 2000, which had actually been relatively weak as it floundered below resistance at around 1150. It then smashed through that resistance and joined the other indexes in bullish territory. It has since taken up leadership in…
