Some individuals keep on asserting that because something affects the growth rate of a variable for only one period that the impact on the variable in question lasts only one period [1] [2]. Here is an extremely simple exposition on why this belief is misguided. Suppose the growth rate (in log terms) is constant at 1% q/q (4% on…
Across the Seasonal Investor’s universe of widely traded exchange traded funds, commodity baskets, technology groups, transportation stocks, REITs, and consumer goods stocks have the best track record for producing gains in the first quarter. Over the past decade, the NASDAQ 100 has been the best major market ETF, climbing eight times and returning a median 2.99% in…
Over the past week most of my core market health indicators fell. This is a bit discouraging in the face of rising market indexes. Only the measures of risk are currently positive. The risk indicators show a market that is drifting under the surface rather than exhibiting underlying strength. As a result, it won’t take…
We Americans no longer carry gold and silver money in our pockets and purses as our grandparents did during their lives. But we still carry the history, legacy and spirit of those gold and silver coins in our language – with more meaning than you might imagine. “Sound money” has a clear message recognized…
It seems that when Paul Revere was riding on horseback warning patriots of the British army’s advance, he was not actually screaming “the British are Coming”. Instead, his mission was likely a secret message, and according to eyewitness accounts, Revere likely said “The Regulars are coming out”. It’s no secret in REIT-dom that “Interest Rates are coming”,…
Less than three months ago, on September 30, 2014, “consensus” expected that EPS and revenue growth in 2015 would be 11.8% and 4.3%, respectively. As of December 19, those projected growth rates have plunged to 7.9% and 2.8%. In other words, both revenue and EPS growth has been slashed by one third in under one quarter (while…
Stocks have been on a tear lately and the trend should continue into today’s session as well, though seasonally low volumes could exacerbate volatility. The strong recent run should continue into the New Year as well. But whether the S&P 500 can produce another double-digit return in 2015 after three back-to-back years of such returns…
As we have discussed numerous times, the best and easiest way to make money in the stock market is to follow the principles of value investing. Removing noise from the market and focusing solely on the economics of a given business allows an investor to form a clear conclusion about the company. As Warren Buffet…
It is hard to sum up the chasm between economic reality and manipulated criminogenic financial markets any better than this epic take-down by former Assistant Secretary of Treasury Paul Craig Roberts. This one should be listened to by all who wish to separate the wheat from the chaff. His comments on Russia and neo-liberal economics are…
At best it is the holiday season when hopes and wishes abound. It may be as it was for Ebenezer, “an undigested bit of beef, a blot of mustard, a crumb of cheese, a fragment of undone potato.” At worst it is spiked eggnog and the peppermint schnapps. How else could reasonable people, like former…
