Export container counts continue to weaken, which is a warning that the global economy is slowing. Export three month rolling averages continue to decelerate – being in negative territory year-over-year. This is a headwind for 4Q2014 GDP. Container counts are a good metric to gauge the economy. Consider that imports final sales are added to GDP…
If you were about to take a final exam, would you have more hope or more fear if you didn’t understand any of the questions and you had not prepared for the test at all? I think that virtually all of us have had dreams where we show up for an exam that we have…
The US Daily Surplus for 12/16/2014 was $7.1B bringing the December 2014 surplus to $11B through 16 days. Click on picture to enlarge Revenues continued to pour in…this time withheld tax deposits….as if in response to my note yesterday that they were looking low…. gained $8B…I suppose some timing quirk I am unaware of, bringing…
Based on historical gold-oil ratios, oil appears extraordinarily cheap right now. One way to establish if a commodity or asset is relatively expensive or inexpensive is to price it in something other than a fiat currency–for example, gold. Gold goes up and down in value relative to other commodities and fiat currencies, so it is itself…
A new report by Good Jobs First shows how the very wealthy in America have benefited from government subsidies as one element in building their fortunes. According to the study, the 11 richest Americans, and 23 of the 25 richest, all have significant ownership in companies that have received at least $1 million in investment incentives. The…
Photo Credit: International Monetary Fund Comments Pretty much a nothing-burger. Few significant changes, if any. The only interesting thing is that they have given up on inflation getting anywhere near 2% for now. Despite lower unemployment levels, labor market conditions are still pretty punk. Much of the unemployment rate improvement comes more from discouraged workers,…
Sanctions and embargoes don’t work. And in the case of Cuba, it took the US 52 years to partially realize that. In 1962, President John F. Kennedy signed into law a Cuban trade embargo. I have long known how foolish Kennedy’s decision was (and the decision of every president since). But I did not know until today…
Is the U.S. consumer aware of global turmoil? According to the Zacks Industry Ranks, the answer is clearly ‘Not Really.’ Consumer discretionary/cyclical stocks remain firmly on a momentum-driven roll. A plethora of good fundamental reasons stand behind the consumer spending ebullience and the related U.S. stock-trading momentum. Jobs are more plentiful than they have been…
The latest oil inventory report shows that the trend that has been present in oil inventories throughout most of this year continued to be broken, as it was last week. However, the fundamentals did not match the price action of one of the world’s most important commodities. The quantity of crude oil in the nation’s…
Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as we try to peer into the future and think about how 2015 will unfold. In forecasting US growth, I wrote that we really need to understand the relationships between the boom in energy production on…
