While on the one hand, Iceland’s decision to inch towards lifting its capital controls is a positive step, it appears what they give with one hand they are taking with another. Just as we predicted three years ago, the muddle-through has failed and there are only hard choices left and sure enough BCG’s envisioned ‘wealth tax’ appears to be rearing its…
U.S. retail spending jumped substantially more than expected last month, the Census Bureau reports: up 0.7% in November vs. the previous month. That’s well above the 0.4% consensus forecast. The profile for consumption looks even stronger on a year-over-year basis. It all adds up to a strong signal for the holiday shopping season, and one that resonates…
Many observers have proclaimed the death of OPEC. This seems to be a premature judgment, and may reflect a misunderstanding of oligopolistic practices. The decision not to cut production is not a sign of the OPEC impotence as has been argued. If OPEC would have cut output, and lost market share as a consequence, would OPEC’s…
Gold prices ended lower on Wednesday, pulling back after sizable gains in the previous two sessions, as investors covered some bullish bets. The day before yesterday, the slide in equity markets dented risk appetite and pushed gold prices to their highest in seven weeks. Honestly, it is not surprising to witness some volatility in gold prices…
Retail sales improved according to US Census and well above expectations. Our analysis slightly disagrees – but the unadjusted data in this series is like riding a roller coaster. Because of the noise in this series, it is better to view the 3 month rolling average of sales growth which improved marginally (driven to a…
First it was humans. Now it is vacuum tubes. Having quickly learned that letting carbon-based traders engage in FX (or stock, or bond, or Libor, but not gold, never gold) rigging usually leads to said carbon-trader ultimately being fired with the bank suffering a violent slap on the wrist, banks are getting smart, and have…
Malinvestment vs. Overinvestment Recently we have come across a very interesting article by Lee Adler, which discusses the connection between the Fed’s money printing activities and the shale oil boom. In this context the possibility is mentioned that QE may actually contribute to “creating deflation”. Obviously, we agree with many, in fact with the vast majority…
Earnings estimates have been plummeting for Carmike Cinemas (CKEC –Snapshot Report) following disappointing Q3 results. The movie theater company experienced a big drop in attendance last quarter due in part to a weak domestic box office. This led to declining profit margins and negative earnings estimates revisions. Carmike is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). And while shares…
