Last week’s surprisingly strong gain in November payrolls may be a sign that the US economy is improving, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the Treasury market. Or would you? Actually, much depends on which portion of the yield curve you’re gazing at. The 2-year yield has popped higher since Friday’s bullish payrolls data, which…
Well that didn’t take long, did it? Our Nikkei and EWJ short positions continue to rake in the cash as that index drops another 122 points overnight but, more to the point, we nailed the switch to the fresh horse of China for our readers, as FXI topped out right at our $42 target, almost to…
Here is the state of the US Yield Curve during a pre-open with deflation in the air and global markets upset. The curve is rising this morning as yields drop. It’s obviously a risk ‘OFF’ picture. They couldn’t wait to fly out of short-term Treasuries (risk ‘ON’) on Friday’s ‘Jobs’ hype and today they are…
BlackRock (BLK) is the largest asset manager in the world, with $4.525 trillion in total assets under management AUM and clients in more than 100 countries. The AUM generates Fee Revenues of around $5.5 billion a year. Product diversity and a heavier concentration in the institutional channel have traditionally provided BlackRock with a much “stickier”…
This post contains Part 2 of my 3-part Economic Outlook for 2015 (read part 1 here). In this article we’ll examine The Conference Board’s 4 Coincident Economic Indicators, which measure the strength of current economic activity. My rankings for each indicator are shown below (-1, 0 or +1), along with the equally-weighted and Conference Board-weighted scores of +50%…
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.46%) this morning are down -0.32 % at a 1-week low and European stocks are down -1.29% on carry-over from a fall in Chinese stocks that plunged over 4% after the government tightened collateral rules for short-term loans. China said it won’t allow bonds rated below AAA or sold by issuers graded…
Those who have been following the ridiculous moves in the Shanghai Composite in recent months, knew it was only a matter of time before yet another major stock market (one which recently surpassed the Nikkei for the second largest spot in the world) crashed violently, further eroding faith in the centrall-planned “price discovery” process. The only question…
What can’t go up forever apparently won’t, and today has seen a couple violent moves. The dollar, which has risen by more than 10% against the yen since the BOJ surprised with a 5-4 vote to accelerate its already aggressive monetary easing on October 31, rose to new multi-year highs yesterday just shy of JPY122 sold…
Financial and risk bubbles don’t pop in a vacuum–all the phantom collateral constructed with mal-invested free money for financiers will also implode. If there’s one absolute truism we hear again and again, it’s that central banks are desperately trying to create inflation. Perversely, their easy-money policies actually generation the exact opposite: deflation. I will leave the debate…
Asian stocks fell, after U.S. shares dropped the most in almost seven weeks, as oil extended its decline and a stronger yen weighed on Japanese exporters. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.3 percent to 139.70 as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo after adding 0.1 percent yesterday. Japan’s Topix index decreased 0.7 percent after the…
