This post contains Part 2 of my 3-part Economic Outlook for 2015 (read part 1 here). In this article we’ll examine The Conference Board’s 4 Coincident Economic Indicators, which measure the strength of current economic activity. My rankings for each indicator are shown below (-1, 0 or +1), along with the equally-weighted and Conference Board-weighted scores of +50%…
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ14 -0.46%) this morning are down -0.32 % at a 1-week low and European stocks are down -1.29% on carry-over from a fall in Chinese stocks that plunged over 4% after the government tightened collateral rules for short-term loans. China said it won’t allow bonds rated below AAA or sold by issuers graded…
Those who have been following the ridiculous moves in the Shanghai Composite in recent months, knew it was only a matter of time before yet another major stock market (one which recently surpassed the Nikkei for the second largest spot in the world) crashed violently, further eroding faith in the centrall-planned “price discovery” process. The only question…
What can’t go up forever apparently won’t, and today has seen a couple violent moves. The dollar, which has risen by more than 10% against the yen since the BOJ surprised with a 5-4 vote to accelerate its already aggressive monetary easing on October 31, rose to new multi-year highs yesterday just shy of JPY122 sold…
Financial and risk bubbles don’t pop in a vacuum–all the phantom collateral constructed with mal-invested free money for financiers will also implode. If there’s one absolute truism we hear again and again, it’s that central banks are desperately trying to create inflation. Perversely, their easy-money policies actually generation the exact opposite: deflation. I will leave the debate…
Asian stocks fell, after U.S. shares dropped the most in almost seven weeks, as oil extended its decline and a stronger yen weighed on Japanese exporters. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.3 percent to 139.70 as of 9:06 a.m. in Tokyo after adding 0.1 percent yesterday. Japan’s Topix index decreased 0.7 percent after the…
A bargain, forged in the fires of 2012’s economic emergency, has defined the European Union for the past two years. It was an agreement made between two sides that can be defined in several terms — the center and the periphery, the north and the south, the producers and the consumers — but essentially one…
Are much lower oil prices good news for the U.S. economy? Only if you like collapsing capital expenditures, rising unemployment and a potential financial implosion on Wall Street. Yes, lower gasoline prices are good news for the middle class. I certainly would rather pay two dollars for a gallon of gas than four dollars. But…
With the third quarter earnings reports for the S&P 500 now in, I can update my quarterly analysis of earnings and estimate trends through the 3rd quarter of 2014. Third quarters results were improved over Q2 as activity continued its rebound following the exceptionally cold winter season. For the quarter, operating earnings rose from $29.34 per share to…
In Europe people can still feel the aftermath of the financial crisis, while in the US things are looking a lot better already. Our economy is clearly picking up speed and that is something Europe can only dream of right now. The difference between Europe and the United States has grown dramatically after the crisis…
