The U.S. economic trend remains positive and stable after recovering from October’s sharp but brief stumble, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +8.5% on Friday (Dec. 5). The index is near the level that prevailed just ahead of its mid-October tumble. The benchmark’s persistence above zero…
Written by Andrew Butter There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time. The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction…
Over dinner last night with friends, my husband told a joke about Kim Kardashian and Paris Hilton (or whomever you want to designate as fact-challenged individuals). The hotel heiress asks “Which is closer to us – Florida or the moon?” The reality star replies – “Hello, can you see Florida from here?” Unfortunately, this type of silliness has reared its…
Fraud generates risk, and risk eventually breaks out in the “safest” parts of the financial plumbing, the ones nobody gives a second thought to because they’re “low risk.” Let’s go all the way back to the last time a central banker actually spoke the truth in public: December 5, 1996, 18 long years ago. It was…
by John West Discussions led by business leaders at the recent Toronto Global Forum suggest that Canada’s economy is sitting on a knife edge. Prospects for the world economy are gloomy and fragile, something Canada cannot insulate itself from. Europe’s economy is on the verge of falling back into recession. Growth is slowing in…
Not a whole lot to add to Friday’s action. The only index to make ground was the Russell 2000: it’s working toward a challenge of the November peak as part of a double bottom at 1,155. But there wasn’t much else to report. A doji in the S&P came with higher volume (accumulation?),…
Not a whole lot to add to Friday’s action. The only index to make ground was the Russell 2000: it’s working toward a challenge of the November peak as part of a double bottom at 1,155. But there wasn’t much else to report. A doji in the S&P came with higher volume (accumulation?),…
Of all the problems with fiat currency, the most basic is that it empowers the dark side of human nature. We’re potentially good but infinitely corruptible, and giving an unlimited monetary printing press to a government or group of banks is guaranteed to produce a dystopia of ever-greater debt and more centralized control, until the…
The slump in oil prices has BP (BP) “concentrating minds on making the organisation more efficient” which means, as The FT translates, the ‘unequivocally good news’ of lower oil prices is accelerating plans for the oil giant to reduce its headcount. The Sunday Times reports, BP is to ax middle managers and freeze projects as Brian Gilvary,…
The latest U.S. payrolls report presents a challenge for the Fed. As discussed back in April (see post), U.S. labor markets are continuing to heal, suggesting that the rate “normalization” should be a serious consideration for the central bank. However the recent deterioration in commodities, especially energy, is “importing” global disinflation to the U.S. (see…
