In previous blog posts (e.g. hehe) I explained the limitations of sentiment as a market timing tool. Since the public is invariably wrong at price extremes, it certainly can be helpful to track the public’s sentiment and use it as a contrary indicator. However, whereas price extremes always coincide with sentiment extremes, sentiment extremes often don’t…
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday, losing 1.6% by the time the markets closed for the day. The uptrend line underneath should continue to be supportive, and I think that it’s not until we break down below that level that we can start selling….
On Friday I wrote: Again, the size of your reserves reflects, and is proportional to, your potential need for funding. You can’t accumulate that many unless you have a similarly arrayed “dollar short.” The bigger the stockpile the more potential for it to get out of hand if things go the wrong way (usually on the…
Four years ago, I wrote a piece for Forbes called “This New Libor ‘Scandal’ Will Cause A Terrifying Financial Crisis,” in which I explained that the “real” Libor scandal wasn’t the Libor rigging scandal, but the fact that that Libor interest rates were simply too low for too long, which was helping to fuel dangerous economic bubbles around…
Thoughts Retail Sales growth: this bull market in stocks still has 1-2 years left. U.S. could increase trade tensions with China. A short term bearish factor for the stock market. Stocks’ reaction to their earnings is not a medium-long term bearish factor for the stock market. Companies set to buyback $800 billion in stocks this…
Gold prices rose slightly yesterday despite better risk appetite in the marketplace to start the trading week. U.S. stock indexes ended the day higher, buoyed by some strong corporate-profit reports. In economic news, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped 0.6% last month. A separate report from the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed…
GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD uptrend keeps pushing for higher highs. Price has now arrived at the previous top on a daily chart which is a strong resistance level. A bullish breakout could see price make an extension towards the round level at 1.45 whereas a bearish retracement could test the support trend lines. 1…
GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD uptrend keeps pushing for higher highs. Price has now arrived at the previous top on a daily chart which is a strong resistance level. A bullish breakout could see price make an extension towards the round level at 1.45 whereas a bearish retracement could test the support trend lines. 1…
USDCAD remains in the downtrend from 1.2943, the bounce from 1.2544 could be treated as consolidation for the downtrend. Support is at 1.2544, a breakdown below this level could trigger another downside movement towards 1.2450 area. Near-term resistance is at 1.2625, only a break of this level could bring the price back towards the falling…
Crude oil prices turned sharply lower, snapping a five-day winning streak. The move seems to have reflected easing concerns about escalation in Syria after US President Trump signaled a weekend rocket attack meant to punish the government for using chemical weapons was a one-off. Trump also backed away from sanctions aimed at penalizing Russia for its support of…
