Our December 2014 Economic Forecast continues to show a stable and growing economy – with a modestly better growth than last month. All portions of the economy outside our economic model – except housing – are showing expansion. There are few warning signs the economy is faltering, and few indications the economy is about to…
The painting “Desembarco de los Puritanos en America,” or “The Arrival of the Pilgrims in America,” by Antonio Gisbert shows Puritans landing in America in 1620. By Antonio Gisbert (1834-1902) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons Summary The first winter took many of the English at Plymouth. By fall 1621, only 53 remained of the 132 who…
The surge in Chinese equity trading that coincided with market peaks in 2009 and 2010 has returned as the Shanghai Composite Index jumped to a three-year high. The 30-day average daily value of shares changing hands on the Shanghai exchange exceeded 200 billion yuan ($32.6 billion) for the first time in four years on Nov….
Four firms have been named in a lawsuit that was filed in the most corrupt court in the nation – the Southern District of New York where judges are free to change the very words spoken in court. I have constantly warned not to file suits there – they seem to go nowhere and are…
Fiscal policy describes how the expenditure and revenue decisions of local, state, or federal governments influence economic growth. In this article, we create a comprehensive measure of fiscal policy called fiscal impetus, which estimates the combined effect of purchases, taxes, and transfers across all levels of government on growth. Our goal is to use this…
Despite the constant blather that lower oil prices are “unequivocally good” for America, we suspect companies working and people living these 19 Shale regions will have a different perspective… Drilling for oil in 19 shale regions loses money at $75 a barrel, according to calculations by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Those areas pumped about 413,000 barrels…
Switzerland will vote on the “Save Our Swiss Gold” initiative this Sunday, and the news is reminding everyone just why the financial world is watching so closely. USA Today and the Wall Street Journal can give you a good summary of how the Swiss gold initiative would affect the policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The Guardian explains…
I have blogged before about the data supply chain and I’m pretty sure I’m still way ahead of other analysts covering this emerging topic. Data sector professionals need to talk more about defining the life cycle management of apps and their supporting data products. I’ll offer two existing constructs that should help data people move…
EUR/USD Signal Update Yesterday’s signals were not triggered and expired as although the price did reach both 1.2442 and 1.2502 during the London session, there was no suitable price action there on the H1 chart after the first touches of these levels. Today’s EUR/USD Signals Risk 0.75% Trades must be made before 5pm London time. Short…
As usual, economists will be paying close attention to Black Friday shopping, trying to get a glimpse of the overall retail sales this holiday season. Expectations this year are more optimistic than what we saw the last couple of years (see chart). Can we learn anything from Google search frequency statistics about trends for Black…
