Despite a rebound in retail Sales the GDPNow forecast slips to 1.9 percent. Real final sales are 0.9 percent. Those expecting today’s retail sales bounce would drive up GDP estimates thought incorrectly. The GDPNow Forecast dipped slightly today. GDPNow Latest Forecast: 1.9 Percent – April 16, 2018 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted…
The world’s second-largest economy China has been growing by leaps and bounds for the past one year. Further, the Asian Development Bank stated in a report on Apr 11 that China would keep growing more than 6% in 2018 as well as 2019. The recent shift of focus from manufacturing to services has been pivotal…
Stocks exuberantly rallied on the ‘hype’ that the world is safe again and America’s latest intervention is one-and-done… but bonds ain’t buying it… The curve tested Friday’s highs then crashed back down its flattest levels since Oct 2007… Someone is ‘wrong’ again! As Eric Peters anecdotally summed up over the weekend… “We have this global synchronized…
GBP/USD Current Situation The GBP/USD is trading around $1.4330, very close to the January 25th highs of $1.4345. Beyond this level, we are back to levels last seen before the EU Referendum of June 23rd, 2016, a day of historical significance that sent cable tumbling down from a swing high of $1.5000 to the low…
Stocks Fall On Friday Led By The Financials It’s worth a mention that the Syrian air strikes that were feared by the stock market earlier this week were announced by President Trump on Friday afternoon. This could send stocks down on Monday. Geopolitical events are always difficult to determine as speculation swirls. I think the best approach is to be…
Following three monthly declines, retail sales rose 0.6 percent in March. Auto sales helped drive a rebound retail sales in March, but the overall rise is moderate. The Wall Street Journal reports Retail Sales Growth Sluggish Despite Higher Employment, Fatter Paychecks. Spending at U.S. retailers bounced back in March, but the broader trend in consumer spending…
U.S. retail sales may have been the most important event risk on today’s calendar but President Trump’s tweet about China and Russia playing the currency devaluation game puts tensions between the world’s 2 largest economies back into central focus. The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to any pressure on China. The Chinese have been…
Escaping volatility by sidelining cash pays nothing. Instead, investors can sit in a high-yielding stock with great expectations while the market makes up its mind. A stock screen for 10%+ upside, 5%+ dividend yield, and positive free cash flow returned 13 stocks. Five stocks were selected for further comparison, representing Energy, Telecom, Real Estate, and…
In our previous take on the US dollar in early February, we wrote that the currency was set to remain weak. At the time, ex-US growth was accelerating, while speculator sentiment was only mildly bearish. While dollar bulls have argued that rate hikes should help the currency, we wrote that expectations for monetary tightening were rising…
While it may seem like a lifetime ago, it was only in late January that the market was melting up relentlessly with every trading day, as volatility crashed lower and lower to unsustainable single digit levels, sending the S&P into a buying frenzy. It was, as Morgan Stanley pointed out at the time, “euphoria.” Of…
