Powell took a measured approach in his first speech as Fed chair as he gave reasons why the Fed shouldn’t hike too quickly and why the Fed shouldn’t hike too slowly. This is a slow hike cycle overall, but he means even slower when describing a speed which is too slow. Too slow could be…
Stocks opened higher on Monday after officials in President Donald Trump’s administration downplayed the potential impact of any looming trade war between the U.S. and China. The morning’s biggest winners were tech stocks, with the so-called “FANG” group—Facebook FB, Amazon AMZN, Netflix NFLX, and Alphabet GOOGL—witnessing a slight rebound from Friday’s selloff. Key officials in the White House appear…
Talking Points: There are only two data prints truly worth paying attention to this week, Chinese and US CPI for March. A lighter calendar means focus will remain on the news wire and trade tensions between the world’s largest two economies. Retail trader positioning has turned neutral on the Euro and the US Dollar after their recent consolidation….
What are the long-term trends for multiple jobholders in the US? The Bureau of Labor Statistics has two decades of historical data to enlighten us on that topic, courtesy of Table A-16 in the monthly Current Population Survey of households. At present, multiple jobholders account for just 5.0 percent of civilian employment. The survey captures data for…
The Congressional Budget Office has hit President Trump with a double whammy in its latest report, calculating that the U.S. budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion by 2020, two years sooner than previously estimated, as tax cuts and spending increases will do little to boost long-term economic growth. Spending will exceed revenue by $804 billion in the fiscal…
Do you want to lend your hard-earned money to the US government? In exchange for the high, high interest rate of 2.8%? It’s a most generous deal, even though the Federal Reserve is committed to dollar devaluation at the rate of 2% per annum. So you are getting 0.8% per year, assuming that the Fed…
Were trade wars inevitable? The answer is yes, due to the imbalances and distortions generated by financialization and central bank stimulus. Let’s stipulate right off the bat that trade is not necessarily win-win–the winners (corporations, financiers and the financial sector) have skimmed the majority of the gains, leaving the losers with a few pennies of…
Finally, we have a story that makes retaliatory sense vs. the widely believed “nuclear” treasury dumping theory. The widely-circulated “nuclear” theory suggests China would dump US treasuries in a trade war with the US. That theory never made any sense. Such a move would tend to strengthen the yuan, making Chinese exports more expensive. Thus,…
Wells Fargo is struggling to re-enter its long-term upward-trending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel, as shown on the following monthly chart of WFC. The momentum indicator has fallen below the zero level on this timeframe and has formed a lower swing low…hinting of further weakness ahead. And, as I mentioned in this February post, major support is at 50.00, so a break and hold below…
After being mostly absent in 2017, volatility has made a comeback. The S&P 500 Index closed down for the first three months of 2018—the first time it’s done so in 10 quarters. It also had its worst start to April since 1929. Gold performed as expected during the quarter, serving as a safe haven and…
