In early February, the markets experienced some turmoil. Volatility spiked, stocks sold off roughly 10% and credit spreads widened. These were strange events given that over the prior 15 months the total return for the S&P 500 was positive each and every month. From November 2016 through January 2018, stocks and most other risky assets…
During yesterday morning’s pointless run-up in valuations, I remarked how I wasn’t concerned, because the broader trend was with the bears. Likewise, with this morning’s smack-down, I’m not dancing on the table with glee, because it’s just another knee-jerk response to what now seems like a daly tit-for-tat response between China and the U.S. As…
Overnight Markets and News June S&P 500 E-minis (ESM18 -1.43%) this morning are sharply lower as China overnight very quickly retaliated to the Trump administration’s announcement late Tuesday of the list of $50 billion worth of Chinese products subject to tariffs for IP violations. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is down -1.27%. China’s…
Planes and cars and steel is one thing, but now it’s serious because we are talking soybeans. China decided to hit at the heart of U.S. China trade by taxing the beloved American soybean. The move was viewed by the market as the first real sign that the potential trade war is serious because China…
Video Length: 00:07:15 The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has been treading water the first few days of the new month and the new quarter, seemingly unmoved by intensifying trade tensions with respect to NAFTA and China. But that could change in the days ahead, especially after, overnight, China announced retaliatory tariffs to the tune…
Every New York stock exchange trading day I’m posting a daily dividend stock or fund review. I’ll share the three chief qualities of just one equity or fund that could be selected for a dividend stock portfolio I’ve named the Safari to Sweet Success. This week my Safari portfolio seeks a high yield and price…
The economic mover and shaker this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, the most publicized being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository). Today we have the ADP March estimate of 241K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease…
BTC/USD Bitcoin traders rallied during the day on Tuesday, gaining about 6%. This is a very bullish sign, and now that we are approaching the $8000 level, we will also be testing the 20 SMA, which is in the middle of the Bollinger Bands. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see…
If you had asked market participants what their expectations were for the U.S. Treasury (UST) yield curve (the difference in yield between the UST 10-Year and UST 2-Year notes) heading into 2018, 9 out of 10 would probably have said they expected the construct to continue to flatten. Well, how has this prognostication fared? The answer is rather surprising, so let’s…
Late yesterday, the US announced that specific tariffs and goods that would be targeted for intellectual property violations. China had warned of a commensurate response and earlier today made its announcement. This sent reverberations through the capital markets, driving down equities, corn and soybean prices (subject to Chinese tariffs). The US dollar was sold, especially…
