Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession. Following last week’s state-level GDP release for 2017Q4 and Philadelphia Fed indices from a week and a half ago — it’s likely no recession occurred, and is currently not occurring. Figure 1: California GDP in millions of Ch.2009$ SAAR (blue, left log scale), California coincident index (red,…
Reports on the Shale Revolution rarely discuss its impact on U.S. energy security, but with little fanfare it’s affording the U.S. greater geopolitical flexibility. The Administration’s decision last week to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal was made without significant regard to the ensuing reduction in Iranian oil exports. Successive U.S. presidents back to Richard…
EUR/USD fell to new 2018 lows but managed to bounce after the US Dollar suffered its own disappointing data. What’s next? GDP and inflation figures stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. German factory orders fell by 0.9% and added to the misery while the…
On Friday, President Trump unveiled his much-anticipated plan to control drug prices in the U.S. During his presidential campaign, Trump had promised to take on the big drug companies and it was feared that the plan would include provisions that would hurt profits in the pharmaceutical industry. As the president began speaking, the stock prices…
Talking Points: Light economic calendar next week; S&P trying to put thoughts of a top to rest German & Eurozone GDP, ZEW figures due out; can the rally last? BoE held on rates, FTSE rallied; record highs lie ahead S&P 500 Next week’s economic calendar is light with no ‘high’ impact data releases scheduled. Headlines out of Washington remain for…
US ethylene spot prices are tumbling as the major new shale gas expansions come on line, as the chart based on ICIS pricing data confirms: They began the year at $617/t, but have since more than halved to $270/t on Friday They are only around 10% higher than their all-time low of $240/t…
The economic calendar is normal, but there will be a lot of competing news – Korean talks, China negotiations, and the Trump legal team’s announcement about whether the President will meet with Special Counsel Mueller. And those are just the items we know about. Sometimes there are great themes that do not get the deserved…
The strength in US Dollar (DXY) in the past two months prompts the question: Has the US Dollar resumed the bullish trend? In this video and analysis below, we explain and rank the most likely path in the DXY. We use the $USDPLN (Poland Zloty) to explain the most likable path: Video Player 00:00…
US Equities roared this week with each of the four benchmarks putting in a dazzling performance up over +2.5% on average, performing with immunity from what most students of history would say is more than a hairline fracture. The escalation of hostility on the Golan Heights is troubling as well as the populist win in…
As Israel prepares for the relocation of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on Monday, the Tel Aviv 125 Index (TA125) appears to be poised for a rally. Price closed on Friday just above major support of 1325 and is trading in between the 50 and 200 moving averages, as shown on the following daily chart. A break and hold above…
