The ultimate signal for investors looking for the next recession is the yield curve. The chart below shows the difference between the 30 year yield and the 5 year yield. At the pace the yield curve is flattening, it will be inverted by August or September. To be clear, you can’t just extrapolate current moves…
French manufacturing fell 1.8% in the first quarter. Industrial Production fell 1.2%, the worst start in 6 years. First Germany, Now France The eurozone recovery is faltering, first with Germany, now with France. French Factories Suffer Worst Quarterly Output Drop Since 2012. Germany In February, German Industrial Output fell by 1.6 percent after rising by a revised…
Here we are again. The stock market looks like it is breaking free, but there are major caveats which keep me wary and sitting on a neutral short-term trading call. First the positive developments. The S&P 500 (SPY) managed to follow-through on its breakout above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Sure the index gained a…
The earnings focus shifts to the Retail sector this week as traditional brick-and-mortar retailers come out with quarterly results. Stocks of most of these traditional operators have done better than the broader markets this year, except for Wal-Mart (WMT) which reports before the market’s open on Thursday and whose stock has been a notable laggard since the…
Dollar/CAD suffered from Trump’s move on the Iran deal and as oil priced sold the fact. What’s next? The double-feature inflation and retail sales reports stand out. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD. The US is abandoning the Iran nuclear deal and imposing sanctions on the country. This pushed oil prices…
FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR GOLD PRICE: NEUTRAL Gold Analysis and Talking Points: Gold prices post weekly rise as the USD Index pulls back The precious metal set for a quieter week amid a light economic calendar GOLD PRICES SEES ITS FIRST WEEKLY RISE IN A MONTH Gold prices sees its first weekly rise in a month, gaining over 1.5% as…
Early Wednesday morning I penned a “Quick Take” discussing the breakout of the two-month long consolidation process. To wit: “The bulls are ‘attempting a jailbreak’ of the ‘compression’ that has pressured markets over the last two months. This breakout will provide a reasonable short-term trading opportunity for portfolios as I still think the most probable paths for the…
Armo Biosciences (Nasdaq: ARMO), a Bay Area immuno-oncology company, agreed to be acquired by Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) in a $1.6 billion transaction (see story). Last year, Armo raised $67 million in a 2017 Series C-1 funding from China investors. Four months ago, Armo completed a $128 million IPO at a $500 million valuation. Lilly offered to pay $50 per…
The US dollar has been on such a strong advance that some investors and journalists may suspect that there is a shortage of dollars.The Dollar Index rise has been relentless, appreciating in all but one week in each of the past three months. The US dollar is now higher on the year against most of the…
