Indexes For This Cycle The Citi Economic Surprise Index is like the CNN Fear and Greed Index in that I usually disagree with its assertions. They are both overly sensitive to changes in the market. I may be biased when reviewing these data points because I always compare the extremes with the financial crisis. For…
The British Pound has been in meltdown mode for the past three weeks, following rate hike expectations every step of the way. On April 19, odds of a 25-bps hike at the May policy meeting were still at 85%, and GBP/USD above 1.4300. But since then, GBP/USD has dropped closer to 1.3500, culminating in the BOE’s May…
With all the controversies over the US imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum (discussed here and here, for example), it’s perhaps useful to consider an overview of what import restraints the US economy already has in place, and what effects they have had. Every three or four years, the US International Trade Commission publishes a report called: “The…
Yelp Inc. (YELP – Free Report) just released its first quarter financial results, posting a loss of $0.03 per share and revenues of $223.07 million. Yelp is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which is subject to change based on today’s results. Shares of Yelp have skyrocketed 69% over the last year and are up roughly 9.7%…
After a period of very slow trading, the prompt month natural gas contract saw a trading range of 11.1 cents today, its largest since February 21st. Trading ranges had been historically low recently as the market coiled, with today’s move now fitting right in with past years. Prices initially traded lower only to then shoot…
This week we look at the earnings outlook for emerging markets (EM) and developed markets (DM) – on both fronts I am specifically using the MSCI indexes, i.e. the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, and the MSCI World Index (as distinct from the MSCI ACWI). For the consensus earnings estimates I am using the Thomson Reuters…
In our last commentary on the Japanese yen, we wrote that the currency was looking excessively weak against the euro. In particular, we stated that bullish catalysts driving EUR/JPY were at risk as speculator positioning in both long euro and short yen trades were looking extreme. In addition, we flagged changes to the Bank of Japan’s…
Emerging market risk is on the rise and the dollar has undergone huge fluctuations. Let’s tie this back to the origin. President Nixon’s Treasury Secretary, John Connally, famously told famously told a group of European finance ministers worried about the export of American inflation that the “dollar is our currency, but your problem.” On August 15,…
The relative strength of Commodities and Currencies favors higher stock prices. The Short and Medium-Term Trends The short-term uptrend is doing well, and I believe a new medium-term uptrend has started. Breadth indicators continue to support the uptrend. New highs are starting to look healthy, and new lows are at harmless levels. The Bullish Percents…
