No Money, No Growth

Last August, the US Fed stopped creating new currency out of thin air and dumping it into the banking system. Which is another way of saying the US money supply stopped growing. Here’s the adjusted monetary base — a proxy for the amount of new currency the Fed is creating — over the past eight…

Tale Of Two Indexes

Over the past week the non-confirmation in Dow Theory between the industrials (DJIA) and the transports (DJTA) widened. Both indexes have been painting a line for over two months. Now both indexes have broken out of their lines. The problem is DJIA broke upward and DJTA broke down. This creates a non-confirmation that warns of a…

Interest Rate Repulsion

I thought oil would be my superhero today, considering how things started, but it turns out my TBT short was actually the real winner. Interest rates tagged the descending blue trendline I’ve drawn below, and since then TLT has been firming up smartly. TBT, the double-short ETF based on treasury bonds, has been wilting mightily today,…

Retail Sales Weren’t Soft

Headline writers were falling all over themselves yesterday to get the news out that retail sales were weaker than the Street conomist crowd consensus guess. The stock market soared as trading algos surmised that this meant that the Fed won’t raise rates anytime soon. There’s just one problem. As so often is the case, the…

Buy-Write Funds: Got You Covered

Fairly early in an investor’s development comes the lesson about covered call writing.  The lecture usually sounds like this: “Income can be generated in a flat market by writing calls against assets held in portfolio.” Well, you probably noticed the domestic equity market has been churning on either side of unchanged over the past month….

E

<< Read Part 1: Why Stock Prices Are What They Are This is the second installment in a series that explains why stocks are priced as they are (or for those who prefer a more precise view, why supply and demand trends for a stock are such as to cause the two to converge at…