The U.S. stock markets delivered a somewhat muted performance this year (at least when compared to 2013) with the S&P (SPX) returning about 12% YTD gains. The towering market of last year turned into a market that saw fears about a global slowdown and its effect on U.S. corporate earnings, plummeting oil prices, sluggish growth…
With just three weeks until the Greek snap elections on January 25 in which Tsipras’ Syriza is virtually assured of victory (unless somehow G-Pap’s “new and improved” political party manages to steal enough votes to prevent this, although one wonders what his political campaign will be: “vote for us because this time we know how to avoid a sovereign…
● Balanced Asset Allocation: How to Profit in Any Economic Climate By Alex ShahidiSummary via publisher (Wiley) The conventional portfolio is prone to frequent and potentially devastating losses because it is NOT balanced to different economic outcomes. In contrast, a truly balanced portfolio can help investors reduce risk and more reliably achieve their objectives. This simple fact…
2014 was supposed to be a breakout year for China life science IPOs. As the year began, China was all set to resume IPOs after a 15-month moratorium, with a new regulatory system and significant pent-up demand. But, for the most part, the renaissance didn’t happen (see story). There was one very successful China pharma IPO…
by Rob Isbitts, Sungarden Investment Research 2014 is behind us. And since we tend to not want to do things the way the Wall Street herd does, our 2015 outlook is formatted this way: we list a group of potential scenarios, and then assign our “best guess” probability that they will happen next year. This is about…
Semiconductors form the basis of virtually all other technology-based devices. The industry therefore drives, enables and indicates the technological progress of an economy. Developments in the industry determine the way we work, commute, communicate, entertain ourselves and respond to our environment. The PCs we work on, the cars we drive, the phones we use, the…
The pros are back from vacation and ready for a new year of punditry! While there is a normal flow of news and a full trading week, I expect the financial media to focus on the New Year. That means an emphasis on slogans and seasonality. Trader lore views January as including special predictive powers:…
<< Read: Variables For An Effective Demand Limit To The Business Cycle Part 1 << Read: New Variable For Effective Demand Limit Part 2 << Read: New Variable For Effective Demand Limit Part 3 For those who have read this series of posts, you have seen the evolution of an Effective Demand model. At the end of this post, you decide…
What “wall of worry”? Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Sentiment Indicator has reached 11 on the Spinal Tap amplifier of euphoric positioning… As Goldman warns… Sentiment Indicator ranks net futures positioning versus the past 12 months. Readings below 10 or above 90 indicate extreme positions that are significant in predicting future returns. Trade accordingly…
In the Eurozone, manufacturing PMI reports last week were for the most part disappointing, as Italian manufacturing contraction unexpectedly accelerated (PMI < 50), while the French manufacturing sector has been in contraction mode for months now. With these poor manufacturing reports in the euro area, falling global commodity prices (see post), falling inflation expectations (see…
