Last week we started a series of letters on the topics I think we need to research in depth as we try to peer into the future and think about how 2015 will unfold. In forecasting US growth, I wrote that we really need to understand the relationships between the boom in energy production on…
When reviewing a deep value screen like Magic Formula® Investing (MFI), it always piques the interest to discover a company that has 5-year compound annual revenue growth of 34% and operating income growth of 112%! Nevertheless, these kinds of stocks DO appear, and when they do they can frequently deliver HUGE gains, as investors benefit…
As the Fed continues to rely on seasonally-adjusted survey data to validate its belief that the time to hike rates is coming, even as market-implied inflation swap rates are back to 2008 levels, the one thing that continues to happen everywhere but in the US is precisely what the Fed wishes for the US (as…
Shares of Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals (CYCC) dropped as much as 75% on December 16, 2014 after the Data and Safety Monitoring Committee — DSMB — determined that the company’s drug known as sapacitabine would not reach its primary endpoint of survival in patients with AML — Acute Myeloid Leukemia. The Phase 3 trial known as SEAMLESS…
LendingClub (LC), the first peer-to-peer lending company, made a shining debut on the New York Stock Exchange last week. It raised $870 million in its IPO at a starting price of $15, above its expected price range of $12–$14 (currently trading at $27.90). LendingClub in Focus LendingClub provides an online platform that connects borrowers with…
There is something very attractive about vintage items that just won’t die. They just keep coming back. Same philosophy but better up-to-date technology. It’s not just cars. It’s investment strategies, too. Vintage strategies are often simple, easy to execute and provide ample ‘out-of-sample’ data. In other words one can see how they performed in real…
Those who took advantage of markets at Fib levels were rewarded. However, this looked more a ‘dead cat’ style bounce than a genuine bottom forming low. This can of course change, and one thing I will want to see is narrow action near today’s high. Volume was a little light, but with Christmas fast approaching…
Putting a portion of your retirement portfolio in another country is a good way to diversify risk on a global level. The risks associated with the economy of any single country can be mitigated by purchasing assets in other countries. Geographic diversification can be achieved through a U.S. brokerage firm by buying foreign stocks, REITs,…
Mortgage applications for home purchases fell almost 7% last week, fading recent gains and hovering once again back at 20 year-lows (entirely unable to reflect the housing ‘recovery’ for the average joe). The plunge in applications comes as mortgage rates crash back to 4% – the lowest in 19 months. The reason – apart from unaffordability…
First comes production. Then comes income. Spending and savings follow. All the rest is debt…….unless you believe in a magic Keynesian ether called “aggregate demand” and a blatant stab-in-the-dark called “potential GDP”. I don’t. So let’s start with a pretty startling contrast between two bellwether data trends since the pre-crisis peak in late 2007—debt versus production. Not…
