Developments in the coming days will likely push the People’s Bank of China into easing monetary policy the near-term. Many have been looking for a follow up move since the PBOC surprised the market on November 21 by cutting interest rates for the first time in two years. Tomorrow HSBC will release its preliminary manufacturing PMI…
Since 2010, the average return of our weekly best scoring ADRs have outpaced the MSCI EAFE by a median 465 bps over the following year, with no turnover. The average ADR score is 43.54, below the four week moving average score of 48.27. The average ADR is trading -27.07% below its 52 week high, -10.69%…
The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) improved. Econintersect‘s analysis agrees – and the unadjusted rolling averages are accelerating from positive backward revisions. Headline seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) increased 1.3% month-over-month and up 5.2% year-over-year. Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP growth was up 0.7% month-over-month, and is up 5.2% year-over-year. The unadjusted year-over-year rate of growth accelerated 0.4% from last…
Housing starts are expected to increase to an annual pace of 1.030 million in tomorrow’s update for November, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection represents a moderate improvement over October’s 1.009 million units. Three estimates based on recent surveys of economists point to a slightly higher gain…
UPDATE: Standard USDJPY -driven momo bounce off various support levels for S&P… Well that escalated quickly… again. While credit markets were not buying the dead-cat-bounce in stocks and oil this morning (Energy HY >1000bps, HYCDX >400bps), financial media was cock-a-hoop… “the bottom is in.” Well we have a new bottom. WTI Crude futures have tumbled back…
Murmuration The market is a giant living organism of human behavior and trying to predict what the market will do in two weeks, much less twelve months from now, is pure folly. However, by looking at the price trends, and using some statistical analysis, we can garner a view of the direction that the “herd” is most…
Weidmann the Strict BuBa chief Jens Weidmann is complaining about the EU Commission’s decision to eschew confrontation with France over its repeated inability to deliver on its debt and deficit targets, and rightly so. Some people may argue that the French government’s recent willingness to implement some long-overdue, if halfhearted reforms, should be taken into…
“Davidson” submits: Below is the updated chart of the U.S. Energy Information Administration monthly data from 2010- which includes Friday’s report. Link: Two weeks ago I sent the EIA data in chart form with the comment that psychological not logical thinking is roiling the security markets. Where in 2012 fears of “Peak Oil” resulted in a…
Industrial output increased sharply in November vs. the previous month, rising at a rate that beat expectations by a wide margin (+1.3% vs. Econoday.com’s consensus forecast of +0.7%). This morning’s monthly release strengthens the case for expecting that the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates next year, perhaps sooner than the mid-2015 forecast that’s been widely…
