Economic Outlook 2015, Part 1: Lagging Indicators Show Growth In
It’s the time of the year to reflect on the direction of the economy. For the past several years I have examined each individual component of The Conference Board’s Lagging, Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators and created my own diffusion index by ranking each indicator -1, 0 or +1. I have found that this method produces accurate forecasts…
Macro-Markets Risk Index Stabilizes After October’s Slide
The U.S. economic trend remains positive and stable after recovering from October’s sharp but brief stumble, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +8.5% on Friday (Dec. 5). The index is near the level that prevailed just ahead of its mid-October tumble. The benchmark’s persistence above zero…
Oil Price Slump: 7% Hit For Global Hotel Stock Prices And 25% Hit
Written by Andrew Butter There is an increasing adjustment to the idea that the “totally unexpected” slump in oil prices to below $70 may prevail for some time. The model that predicted since 2011 Brent would, at some point, bottom at $67 which is just 3% below where it reached yesterday (not bad for a prediction…
Taxpayer Bailout Of Underfunded Pension Plans
Over dinner last night with friends, my husband told a joke about Kim Kardashian and Paris Hilton (or whomever you want to designate as fact-challenged individuals). The hotel heiress asks “Which is closer to us – Florida or the moon?” The reality star replies – “Hello, can you see Florida from here?” Unfortunately, this type of silliness has reared its…
We’ve Habituated To A Rigged, Fraudulent Market
Fraud generates risk, and risk eventually breaks out in the “safest” parts of the financial plumbing, the ones nobody gives a second thought to because they’re “low risk.” Let’s go all the way back to the last time a central banker actually spoke the truth in public: December 5, 1996, 18 long years ago. It was…
Canada’s Economy On A Knife Edge
by John West Discussions led by business leaders at the recent Toronto Global Forum suggest that Canada’s economy is sitting on a knife edge. Prospects for the world economy are gloomy and fragile, something Canada cannot insulate itself from. Europe’s economy is on the verge of falling back into recession. Growth is slowing in…
Honors Even – Indices Little Changed
Not a whole lot to add to Friday’s action. The only index to make ground was the Russell 2000: it’s working toward a challenge of the November peak as part of a double bottom at 1,155. But there wasn’t much else to report. A doji in the S&P came with higher volume (accumulation?),…
Honors Even – Indices Little Changed
Not a whole lot to add to Friday’s action. The only index to make ground was the Russell 2000: it’s working toward a challenge of the November peak as part of a double bottom at 1,155. But there wasn’t much else to report. A doji in the S&P came with higher volume (accumulation?),…
World In A Box
Of all the problems with fiat currency, the most basic is that it empowers the dark side of human nature. We’re potentially good but infinitely corruptible, and giving an unlimited monetary printing press to a government or group of banks is guaranteed to produce a dystopia of ever-greater debt and more centralized control, until the…