The Fed’s Policy Trajectory Is Tied To Global Recovery

The latest U.S. payrolls report presents a challenge for the Fed. As discussed back in April (see post), U.S. labor markets are continuing to heal, suggesting that the rate “normalization” should be a serious consideration for the central bank. However the recent deterioration in commodities, especially energy, is “importing” global disinflation to the U.S. (see…

New Estimates Of The Effects Of The Minimum Wage

A large literature has examined the effects on employment of raising the minimum wage, with different researchers arriving at conflicting conclusions. The core reason that economists can’t answer questions like this better is that we usually can’t run controlled experiments. There is always some reason that the legislators chose to raise the minimum wage, often…

Something Doesn’t Compute: Inside The BLS Jobs Data

Guest Post by Jeffrey P. Snider via ContraCorner The juxtaposition could not be more fitting with all that is transpiring at this moment in economic history. On Monday, the headlines were filled with, Black Friday Fizzles as Sales Tumble 11% and ‘Black Friday’ Fades as Weekend Retail Sinks 11%. Then the “employment” report comes out and now the headlines…

Africa Has A Dynamic Startup Scene. But Is It Scalable?

    Sub-Saharan Africa is a confusing place, at least to outside observers. You’ve got a dynamic startup scene alongsidewidespread poverty and hunger.  You have a moon mission in the works, at the same time that most of the population lacks passable roads. Some observers believe that these development gaps can be overcome through digital technology. As the Wall…

Jobs Leap 321,000 Get Ready For The New Normal

One of Pacific Investment Management Company’s (PIMCO) elite brain trust Mohamad El-Erian coined the phrase, “the new normal” six years ago when characterizing the future returns for equity investors. Basically after all his in-depth research, analysis, modeling and magic wand he stated equity investors would need to adjust to future returns of 5% or so….

Dividend Portfolio Sector Allocation Update

Several months ago I posted an update highlighting my dividend portfolio sector allocation. It’s always important to be aware of your portfolio allocation. At times when building out a new portfolio, or a particular sector experiences unusual strength or weakness, balances can fall out of alignment and you can be faced holding a portfolio that is…