Worst Decline In 2 Years

On the other hand, according to the Shiller PE, the stock market is much more expensive now. The Shiller PE was 24 on February 1st, 2016 while it's at 32.83 now. The forward PE was about 15 in January 2016 and now it's 17.1. You're getting a more expensive market now with stronger fundamentals and much more investor optimism even after the correction. During the January 2016 decline, the bears actually outnumber the bulls.

Recession Not In Sight

Furthering the point of how different the economy is now versus January 2016, the chart below shows the odds of a recession based on credit markets. As you can see, the odds are at 13%. It was in the low 30s in January 2016. I'm not saying this is a great forecasting tool because clearly if stocks and bonds act in tandem with the economy, this indicator won't forecast anything. It will tell you what you see on your screen.