GDP growth for the third quarter was revised higher, from 3.9% to 5.0%. But I'm viewing the numbers with a healthy dose of skepticism. I tossed out my thoughts on StockTwits this morning:
The BEA's tables dig deeper into the data. Of the 5.0% in GDP growth, 0.80% was increased government spending, and 0.78% was an increase in “net exports,” or exports minus imports. Export growth was nothing spectacular; most of the 0.78% came from a reduction in imports.
Imports reduce GDP, as they represent goods and services not produced here, though this sends a misleading signal. All else equal, high imports are a sign of a strong economy (or at least a strong currency).
The dollar is on fire this year, rising sharply against the currencies of virtually all of our trading partners. In a normal world, this would mean higher imports. One quarter is not enough data to draw real conclusions, of course. But it does make me take the GDP growth figures with a healthy grain of salt.
Personal consumption expenditures contributed 2.21% to the 5.0% growth. But 0.52%–or about a quarter of the total–was due to increased healthcare spending. Again, that's hardly a sign of robust growth.
There were definitely signs of strength. Fixed investment chipped in 1.21% and durable goods 0.67%. But overall, this GDP report paints a picture of pinched consumers spending more on healthcare and a federal government that is loosening its purse strings. Not exactly the stuff that booms are made of.