Dear Diary,

We saw the old year out in business class on Air France. We feted it with champagne and woke up in 2015 thinking about you.

Many dear readers wrote to offer best wishes for the New Year. Others wrote with compliments on our book or new newsletter.

Thanks to all… and best wishes to you for 2015. We hope to help make it a good year for you.

Often, readers accuse us of “negativity” or “excessive pessimism.” Typically, they also ask for “solutions.”

Perhaps the beginning of a new year would be a good time to address the issue.

Chris presented a list of possible market surprises in 2015. Although oil at $40 a barrel and gold at $1,000 may sound shocking, for the most part these trends are already under way.

Trends continue until they end… which often takes many years. “More of the same” is usually what happens.

But that doesn't make it the best bet. The best bet has to take into account the consequences of being wrong. That's where the negativity comes in.

The stock market may continue to go up in 2015. Investors may continue praying to Saint Janet, with positive results. US economic growth may continue.

But what if they don't?

Buy on the Dip

The major media, Washington and Wall Street will be happy to tell you why things will be cheery and bright in 2015. Just look at the price action last year. From Bloomberg:

“Investors and traders over the last number of years have been conditioned to buy on the dip,” said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist based in Newark, New Jersey, at Prudential Financial Inc., which oversees $1 trillion in assets. “This year was no exception.”

Stocks have dropped on 107 days in 2014, two more than in 2013, and never once declined more than three straight times, a first in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2000. Stocks jumped an average of 0.1% on days after they fell, helping underpin a 235-point advance in the S&P 500 that pushed its 10-year annualized return to 7.8%. It was minus 4.5% as recently as March 2009.

Companies are doing what they can to keep shares aloft. Through the first three quarters of the year they spent $515 billion on repurchases, a rate that were it maintained would trail only 2007 for the highest level ever, Birinyi data show.