Do you consider how inaccurate the monthly economic releases are? Every day, the markets react to the deviation from expectations for releases on employment, manufacturing, spending et al. No consideration is made to the backward revisions which effect HOW one should view the current data.

Analysis of monthly movements are hardly ever correct as backward revisions, sometimes even a year or more afterwards, continue to change how one should have viewed the data. To understand the problems with writing correct analysis based on each monthly release can be understood by looking at 12-month totals of the monthly gains or losses (as stated in each month's release) versus the currently stated annual change.

Table of Seasonally Adjusted Month-over-Month Change As Stated in Each Monthly Release

  retail Sales New Home Construction Existing Home Sales BLS Employment May 0.30% -6.40% 5.10%   Jun 0.20% -4.20% 2.60% 288 Jul 0.00% 8.10% 2.40% 209 Aug 0.60% -5.60% -1.80% 142 Sep -0.30% 1.50% 2.40% 248 Oct 0.30% 4.80% 1.50% 214 Nov 0.70% -5.20% -6.10% 321 Dec -0.90% -1.90% 2.40% 252 Jan -0.80% -0.70% -4.90% 257 Feb -0.60% 3.00% 1.20% 295 Mar 0.90% -5.70% 6.10% 126 Apr 0.00% 10.10% -3.30% 223 May 1.20% 11.80% 5.10% 280 Jun       223           Total of Monthly Increases 1.60% 9.60% 12.70% 3078 Current Year-over-Year Seasonally adjusted change 2.70% 25.40% 9.20% 2935

Except at economic turning points, the BLS jobs report tends to balance out over a year period – but job gains between months jump around.