Barring a big move on Monday, the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015 isn't going to be the beneficiary of a so-called Santa Claus rally. The S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) is now down 1.1% since the Christmas break, versus the average 1.8% gain we usually see during this period of the year. 

That, however, isn't the only market worry at this point. More alarming is how much the last three months of 2014 looks like the last three months of 2013, which served as the basis for a rather bearish January of 2014 (the market lost about 5% last January before recovering).

We'll compare and contrast the two timeframes in question below, along with our unbiased look at what's going right and going wrong with stocks at this time.  The first thing we want to take care, however, is a review of last week's key economic figures. 

Economic Data

There wasn't a great deal of data in the lineup for last week, but a couple of items merit a closer look.

One of them is the Case-Shilller Index through October.  It says home prices were up 4.5% as of the latest look, on a year-over-year basis.  We're still nowhere near back to 2006's peak prices, and it would be a stretch to say home prices are heating up again after 2014's lull.  October's advance was a glimmer of hope, though, possibly rekindling an uptrend. 

Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Chart

Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) and the ISM Index both remained in positive territory – above 50 – though both of them also peeled back from November's levels in December.  Each is charted below.

PMI and ISM Indices Chart

Source:  Thomson Reuters Eikon

Economic Calendar

Source:  Briefing.com

The coming week is going to be much busier on the economic front, though the bulk of this week's focus is going to be on December's employment numbers.