Year-over-year import price inflation was unchanged, whilst export price inflation advanced.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

Because of backward revisions – the year-over-year import prices were down from where we thought we were last month, whilst the export prices did advance.

Import Oil prices were down 1.3 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were down 1.2 %.

with import prices up 3.3 % year-over-year;

and export prices up 3.8 % year-over-year;

the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):

  Consensus Range Consensus Actual Import Prices – M/M change 0.3 % to 0.7 % +0.5 % +0.3 % Export Prices – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.3 % +0.3 % +0.6 %

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions, and export/import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change – Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

 

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession – early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with a strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Import prices advanced 0.3 percent in April resuming the recent upward trend after declining 0.2 percent the previous month. The March decrease was the first time the index recorded a drop since a 0.2- percent decline in July 2017. Prices for U.S. imports rose 3.3 percent between April 2017 and April 2018. U.S. import prices have not recorded a 12-month decline since a 0.2-percent decrease for the year ended October 2016.

All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6 percent in April and have not recorded a decline since June 2017. The monthly advance was driven by higher nonagricultural export prices which more than offset declining agricultural prices. The price index for U.S. exports increased 3.8 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month increase since a 4.8-percent rise for the year ended November 2011. The index has not recorded a decrease on a 12-month basis since a 0.2-percent decline between November 2015 and November 2016.