It may be almost impossible to underestimate the gullibility of professional Fed watchers. At least Lucy van Pelt needed to place an actual football on the ground to fool poor Charlie Brown. But in today's high stakes game of federal reserve mind reading, the Fed doesn't even have to make a halfway convincing bluff to make the markets look foolish.
Just two weeks ago, the release of the Fed's March policy statement and the subsequent press conference by Chairwoman Janet Yellen should have made it abundantly clear that the Central Bank policy had retreated substantially from the territory it had previously staked out for itself. In December it had anticipated four rate hikes in 2016, but suddenly those had been pared down to two. Based on the conclusion that the era of easy money had been extended for at least a few more innings, the dollar sold off and stocks and commodities rallied.
But in the two weeks that followed the dovish March guidance, some lesser Fed officials, including those who aren't even voting members of the Fed's policy-setting Open Market Committee, made some seemingly hawkish comments that convinced the markets that the Fed had backed off from its decision to back off.
The campaign began on March 19 when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed had largely met its inflation and employment goals and that it would be “prudent to edge interest rates higher.” (H. Schneider, Reuters) Two days later Bloomberg reported that Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart had said, “There is sufficient momentum…to justify a further step…possibly as early as April,” (J. Randow, S. Matthews, 3/21/16)
And it didn't stop there. On March 22, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said,“there is a strong case that we need to continue to raise rates…I think we need to get on with it.” (J. Spicer, Reuters) On March 24, Bullard chimed in again, saying that rate hikes “may not be far off,” appearing to back Lockhart's suggestion for a surprise April hike. Suddenly, chatter erupted on Wall Street that the April FOMC meeting should be considered a “live” one, where a rate hike was possible. With such caution spreading, the markets reacted predictably: the dollar rallied, gold and stocks declined.
At the time I said, as I have been saying all year, that the Fed never had an intention to tighten further, and that it would continue to talk up the economy just to create the impression of health. But many believed that Janet Yellen would use her speech this week at the New York Economic Club (her first public comments since her March press conference) to underscore the comments made by her colleagues in the past two weeks. Instead she delivered a double-barreled repudiation of any potential hawkish sentiment. In fact, her talk could be viewed as the most dovish she has ever delivered since taking the Chair.
