April Payrolls Bounce, Revisions Take March Lower: Hiring Increasingly Volatile

Initial Reaction

Today's establishment employment report shows a huge, 211,000 jump in reported Vs. a downward revised March. The BLS revised March even lower, to 79,000 from 98,000. Revisions also took February up to 232,000 from 219,000.

Last month, economists blamed the weather. If so, the correct thing to do is average both months as employees not hired in March due to weather would have been hired in April instead.

The two-month average is 145,000 per month. That's not a disaster, but it's not particularly strong either.

The internals of the report as measured by the household survey were average. The household survey shows a gain in employment of 156,000, close to the two-month average in jobs.

Revisions

Last month the BLS revised February from +235,000 to +219,000. This month the BLS changed its mind and revised February back up to 232,000.

Other revisions are as noted above.

Let's dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +211,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +156,000 – Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -146,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -281,000 – Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: -23,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.1 to 4.4% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.3 to 8.6% – Household Survey
  • Civilian Noninstitutional Population: +175,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +12,000 – Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +162,000 – Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.9 – Household Survey
  • Employment Report Statement

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, financial activities, and mining.

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