Are Stocks On The Verge Of Another Incredible 1999-Style Surge?

Over the past few months the “blow off” camp has gotten fairly crowded. First, Jeremy Grantham said that we are very nearly in bubble in the stock market currently. However, he believes that bubbles don't just fizzle out. They usually end in an epic move that runs faster and farther than anyone could ever imagine. Specifically, he's looking for valuations to come fairly close to what we saw back in 1999.

Then, a few months later, David Tepper said that because this year rhymes (of course, history never repeats) with 1998 we could see a 1999-style surge in the stock market in 2015. Today, like in the late 90's, is being made too easy resulting in yet another asset bubble, he says. He is also looking for valuations that reach levels close to what we saw back in 1999 (according to him, today's p/e is a mere 16 compared to 1999's 40 but there are much better ways to measure valuations, in my humble opinion).

Recently, Richard Russell wrote a piece in which he revealed that he believes we are are only now entering the third phase of this bull market. He reminds us that gains in the third phase are usually equal to those of both phases one and two. Stocks have roughly tripled since the 2009 low (700 to 2100) so his expectation is about 3,500 on the S&P 500, almost 70% higher than its current level.

Just this week, Jim Rogers hopped aboard the “blow off” bus by saying he believes the stock market is probably due for some sort of decline but if stocks decline to any significant degree, the Fed will turn the printing presses back on and like never before sending stocks to ridiculous heights.

So we now have at least four respected pundits predicting an amazing “blow off” run for stocks. Know that I respect each of these individuals greatly and in their own right. Rogers is a hero of mine and I have as much admiration for Grantham's work as for anyone in the industry.

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