The headlines say wholesale sales slowed again year-over-year with inventory levels remaining at levels associated with recessions. The best way to look at this series may be the unadjusted data three month rolling averages which marginally accelerated but keeping the long term downtrend in play. This report is not excellent.
Note that Econintersect analysis is year-over-year – the analysis is based on the change from one year ago. Econintersect Analysis:
Year-over-Year Sales – Unadjusted (blue line), Unadjusted but Inflation Adjusted (red line), 3 month Rolling Averages (yellow line)
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US Census Headlines based on seasonally adjusted data:
Wholesale Sales – Unadjusted – $ Millions
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Wholesale sales were at record highs for almost two years – until 2015 where they contracted year-over-year (and the contraction continues). Overall, the inventory-to-sales ratios (a rising ratio is an indicator of economic slowing) was abnormally high relative to past Julys.
