BEA Reports 2nd Quarter 2015 GDP Growing at 2.32%
by Rick Davis, Consumer Metrics Institute
In their first estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a 2.32% annualized rate, up +1.68% from a revised +0.64% growth rate for the first quarter (and up over 2.49% from the -0.17% contraction rate previously reported).
The revision to the first quarter's “final estimate” was accompanied by revisions to all quarters back through 2012. On average the revisions trimmed about a quarter of a percent (-0.22%) from previously reported growth rates. However, several quarters were more materially revised — with nearly -2.0% shaved off the growth rate for the third quarter of 2012, and another -1.5% removed from the grow rate previously reported for the third quarter of 2013. A table showing all of the revisions to the historic headline numbers is provided below.
For the newly reported second quarter nearly all of the BEA's major categories of economic activity had positive contributions to the headline number. Consumer goods contributed +1.04% to the headline, while consumer services added +0.95%. Exports provided +0.67% (up +1.48% from a revised -0.79% contraction in the prior quarter), while imports removed only -0.54% from the headline (some +0.58% better than the revised -1.10% impact in the first quarter). Fixed investment provided a positive contribution (+0.14%), as did governmental spending (also +0.14%). Inventories were nearly unchanged (-0.08%), resulting in a +2.40% growth rate for the BEA's “bottom line” real final sales of domestic product.
Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $37,846, some -$364 per year less than the previously reported $38,210 per annum. All of that downside came as a result of revisions to the prior quarter's data, which was revised downward by -$437 (over a full percent). Meanwhile, the household savings rate plunged to 4.8% — down -0.7% from the previously reported 5.5%.
