BLS Jobs Situation Mixed In July 2015. Growth Rate Of Employment Continues To Slow

The BLS jobs report headlines from the establishment survey was at expectations. The unadjusted data shows growth is lower than last year with continued almost insignificant deceleration of year-over-year rate of growth. Overall, this report paints a mixed picture.

The rate of growth for employment continued to decelerate this month (red line on graph below).

Unadjusted Non-Farm Private Employment – Year-over-Year Change (blue bars – left axis) and Year-over-Year Growth Acceleration / Deceleration From Previous Month (red line – right axis)

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The unadjusted jobs added month-over-month was normal for times of economic expansion but less than last year.

Economic intuitive sectors of employment were showing some growth.

This month's report internals (comparing household to establishment data sets) was inconsistent with the household survey showing seasonally adjusted employment growing 101,000 vs the headline establishment number of growing 215,000. The point here is that part of the headlines are from the household survey (such as the unemployment rate) and part is from the establishment survey (job growth). From a survey control point of view – the common element is jobs growth – and if they do not match, your confidence in either survey is diminished. [note that the household survey includes ALL jobs growth, not just non-farm).

The household survey added 69,000 people to the workforce.

A summary of the employment situation:

BLS reported: 215K (non-farm) and 210K (non-farm private). Unemployment unchanged at 5.3%.

ADP reported: 185K (non-farm private)

In Econintersect‘s July 2015 economic forecast released in late June, we estimated non-farm private payroll growth at 180,000 (unadjusted based on economic potential) and 225,000 (fudged based on current overrun of economic potential);

The market expected:

Seasonally Adjusted Data Consensus Range Consensus Actual Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M change 210,000 to 262,000 212,000 215,000 Unemployment Rate – Level 5.2 % to 5.4 % 5.3 % 5.3 % Private Payrolls – M/M change 200,000 to 258,000 210,000 210,000 Average Hourly Earnings – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.3 % 0.2 % +0.2 % Av Workweek – All Employees 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.6 hrs

The BLS reports seasonally adjusted data – manipulated with multiple seasonal adjustment factors, and Econintersect believes the unadjusted data gives a clearer picture of the jobs situation.

Non-seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls improved 169,000 – the worst than 2014 and about average in the 21st century for times of economic expansion.

Historical Unadjusted Private Non-Farm Jobs Growth Between Junes and Julys (Table B-1, data in thousands) – unadjusted (blue line) vs seasonally adjusted (red line)