The final four months of the year tend to provide the majority of volatility for trader's annual calendar. This year could be no different as developing themes both geopolitical and market-based are expected to clarify themselves in the coming weeks and months, which leads to the repricing of previously mispriced assets and brings trading opportunities for those of us that love to pounce on such events.
Friday's Non-Farm Payroll was seen as a non-event in relative terms as the Fed was not likely to change course (more than they already are perceived to). The headline number had minor misses all around at 156k (vs. 180k) headline as unemployment rose to 4.4%, and Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) missed at 0.1% (vs. 0.2%).A favorable view of the release came from Gary Cohn, a potential replacement for Janet Yellen in 2018 if she is not nominated and Economic advisor to the White House. Cohn said that the numbers were not disappointing and that they were “seeing job creation in the sectors where we want it.”
A bit more significant than Cohn's words is the push higher in yields of US Treasuries on the front-end. Higher yields align with a lower price that tells investors that the Fed is not seen as being pushed back from tightening monetary policy from today's news announcement. It is possible the confidence was also borrowed from the US ISM manufacturing has come in stronger than anticipated: 58.8 versus 52.5 expected.There was a sharp move higher in USD/JPY after the news, and EUR/USD pushed toward the daily lows at 1.1860 after the data.
After the US holiday on Monday, the markets will get to work to assess the damage from Hurricane Harvey to see when the largest refiners in the US, which were near the epicenter of the flooding, are expected to be online. We have seen massive calendar spreads between front-month and next month (Sep – Oct) gasoline contracts that show the confusion and shortage at hand. While buying gasoline futures for September on the bet that refineries will not be up and running soon after extensive flooding may feel inhumane, it also helps to get a sense of the stresses upon the infrastructure in coming months.
