“Index shows economic growth accelerated in November”: This is the headline for today's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here are the opening paragraphs from the report:

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.73 in November from +0.31 in October. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, and only one of the four categories made a negative contribution to the index in November. 

The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +0.48 in November from +0.09 in October, reaching its highest level since May 2010. November's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests modest inflationary pressure from eco- nomic activity over the coming year. 

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.37 in November from +0.18 in October. Fifty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 31 made negative contributions. Fifty indica- tors improved from October to November, while 35 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, six made negative contributions. [Download PDF News Release]

The previous month's CFNAI was revised upward from 0.14 to 0.31.

Background on the CFNAI

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.