“Index shows economic growth picked up slightly in June”: This is the headline for today's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here are the opening paragraphs from the report:

Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up to +0.08 in June from –0.08 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in June. 

The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to –0.01 in June from –0.07 in May. June's CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was very close to its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 sug- gests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year. 

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.07 in June from –0.01 in May. Forty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 37 made negative contributions. Forty-four indicators improved from May to June, while 40 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indica- tors that improved, 13 made negative contributions. [Download PDF News Release]

The previous month's CFNAI was revised upward from -0.17 to -0.08.

Background on the CFNAI

The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth.