“With so many retail investors in China's stock market, a collapse of share prices affects people's savings, incomes and welfare. Many no doubt invested because they were confident in the government's capacity to rescue the market. This may explain, in part, why Beijing intervened so quickly when the market plummeted. Still, while Beijing's instinct to protect investors is understandable, the best way of doing so is to create a modern capital market.”
The quote featured above is from an FT op-ed penned by none other than everyone's favorite bazooka-wielding, ex-Goldmanite Hank Paulson and as you might have gathered, there's something particularly amusing about the former Treasury Secretary's message to China.
Here is a man who once charged up Capitol Hill, stormed into Congress and demanded a multibillion dollar check for Wall Street telling Beijing that their stock market bailout is “understandable” but ultimately inappropriate.
In fact, both TARP and China's official support for CSF amount to three-quarter trillion efforts to shore up flagging investor sentiment. Given Paulson's experience with such things, perhaps he can help Beijing understand why so far, $800 billion has proven largely ineffective at restoring the country's previously world-beating equity bubble. Here's Reuters with more on a “stock rescue” plan that's all “bark” and no “bite”:
China has enlisted $800 billion worth of public and private money to prop up its wobbly stock markets, a Reuters analysis shows, but the impact of the unprecedented government-orchestrated rescue has so far been modest.
Public statements, media reports and market data reveal that Beijing unleashed 5 trillion yuan (515 billion pounds) in funds – equivalent to nearly 10 percent of China's GDP in 2014and greater than the 4 trillion yuan it committed in response to the global financial crisis – to calm a savage share sell-off.
But while the 2008 stimulus package staved off recession, analysts wonder what benefit the stock rescue package can bring to offset the risk the government is buying stocks at valuations private investors are no longer willing to pay.
“I'm quite negative towards the rescue,” said Yang Weixiao, analyst at Founder Securities in Beijing.
“The problem is, all these measures only change the supply-demand relationship, without changing the fundamentals. So there's no real support, and the calm could be only temporary.If the governments exits the bailout, prices could accelerate their journey back to fundamentals.”