For those wondering where US shale exploration and production companies will be in about 2-3 years, look no further than the gold miners, where the disconnect between undaunted physical demand and relentless paper supply (after rebounding above 0%, GOFO is once again negative through the 3 month mark), and where high production costs and low selling prices, after two years of balance sheet pain, is finally leading many over the cliff. Case in point, Canadian gold-miner San Gold, which had a capitalization of over $1 billion in 2010 just filed for bankruptcy protection. It isn't the first gold-miner to wave the white flag, and it certainly won't be the last.

As the WSJ reported earlier, the Winnipeg-based company said in a statement that it has asked Canadian courts for an initial 30 days protection from its creditors as it seeks to restructure its business.

“San Gold spent half a billion on their assets, and they haven't had a profitable quarter in six years,” said Greg Gibson, who became CEO in June after a boardroom revolt against the previous management.

The problem, as gold miners (and their long-suffering shareholders know) and as shale companies are about to find out, is that “the sector had overstretched itself during the commodity boom, when the high gold price, and willing investors, saw miners spend heavily on acquisitions and bring new production on line. Some of the sector's new production was lower grade gold, which is more expensive to mine and became unprofitable as the price of gold fell.”

This all happened before the Swiss National Bank imposed its currency controls by way of a EURCHF 1.20 floor on September 6, 2011 as the Eurozone was tearing apart, and which, incidentally, also marked the record high in the gold price. Since then gold has tumbled by a third and many of the smaller miners have gone bankrupt while others have stopped production or exploration as they look to raise cash.