The headlines say seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) was up. The manufacturing segment of industrial production also improved.

Analyst Opinion of Industrial Production

There was insignificant revision to the existing data over the last 6 months. The best way to view this is the 3 month rolling averages which improved. Industrial production is in a long term upward trend.

The reason for the significant growth in industrial production was due to mining.

Manufacturing employment rate of growth is accelerating year-over-year.

Headline seasonally adjusted Industrial Production (IP) was up 0.9 % month-over-month and up 3.6 % year-over-year.

Econintersect‘s analysis using the unadjusted data is that IP growth accelerated 0.1 % month-over-month, and is up 3.6 % year-over-year.

The unadjusted year-over-year rate of growth was up 0.7 % from last month using a three month rolling average, and is up 3.4 % year-over-year.

The market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):

Headline Seasonally Adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual IP (month over month change) 0.3 % to 0.8 % +0.4 % +0.9 % IP Subindex Manufacturing (month over month change) 0.0 % to 0.5 % +0.3 % +0.1 % Capacity Utilization 77.2 % to 77.8 % 77.3 % 77.9 %

IP headline index has three parts – manufacturing, mining and utilities – manufacturing was up 0.1 % this month (up 2.4 % year-over-year), mining up 11.5 % (up 9.4 % year-over-year), and utilities were up 5.6 % (up 1.8 % year-over-year). Note that utilities are 10.8 % of the industrial production index, whilst mining also is 10.8 %.

Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Year-over-Year Change of the Industrial Production Index (blue line) with Components Manufacturing (red line), Utilities (green line), and Mining (orange line)