The global stock selloff is intensifying without input from China, closed for the week for New Year's.
Concern over the failure of OPEC to reach a deal to boost oil prices is the ostensible trigger for another round of selling which has hit not only oil-related shares, but also ones from sectors offering alternative energy: nuclear, solar, and battery systems. The rot is spreading to other commodity shares.
Meanwhile, concern over bank exposure to emerging markets, its pricey credit default swaps, and the dropping German “bund” yield have pushed down Deutsche Bank (DB) shares by 4.35%. Europe-traded stocks fell to levels last seen in 2014, after a sixth day of decline. We update our sovereign wealth note.
Worry has also boosted the price of gold which now has risen 11% YTD.
Yet China is not free from all blame. Sunday it updated information of outflows from its reserves in Jan. which shrank less than forecast to $3.23 trillion, still a 3-yr low.
US yield stocks like Williams Companies (WMB) and Targa Resources (NGLS) are plummeting. Despite relatively upbeat US economic indicators, Wall Street is being hit by hurricane winds from Europe about a recession in US markets, taking down the “FANG” tech favorites of last year and other stocks which gained in 2015.
Car Jacking
*”When the facts change I change my mind. What do you do?” is (possibly wrongly) attributed to John Maynard Keynes. But it explains what we are doing by selling Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), formerly one of my picks for 2016. The reasons are multiple. I still like its management but there are tech problems which go beyond what a brilliant accountant and deal-maker can do.
First, my assumption that the Italy-based company would gain European market share at the expense of Volkswagen diesels spewing out nitrogen oxide was wrong. Fiat cars like the Punto and the Bravo also failed emissions tests in real driving, and also were fiddled with during staged tests. (Astonishingly, this was legal under EU rules.) Other European car-makers did even worse, but I am not interested in a race to the bottom.
Secondly there are problems with Fiat's most popular US models using the company 3.6 liter V-6 engine. Customers think the automatic transmission is in “park” but it slips out and causes accidents. The affected vehicles include the Jeep Grand Cherokee, a best-seller, Chrysler 300, and Dodge Charger.
Other recalls includes slipping from jacks when drivers change tires on the Charger. The body beneath the doors is bent and becomes unstable. So it falls off the jacks. Fiat has to offer some 500,000 owners wheel chocks and automatic transmission fixes for their 2011 to 2016 Charger models.
Meanwhile US dealers are banned from selling these models until repairs have been made and approved on all affected cars, including the recalls and unsold cars on the lots. Naturally FCAU has to pay its dealers for delays in selling.
Yet another issue is whether FCAU can shut down Detroit plants making slow-selling vehicles. Under its deal with the United Auto Workers, FCAU became a bellwether for making a deal with the union but now it wants to centralize and cut production of unpopular models.
The fact that viewers of the Superbowl were hit with lots of ads for Fiat Chrysler cars, notably the Jeep which turns 75 this year is irrelevant. So is my interest in the Fiat 500 mini car as a way to get around NYC with flair.
It would have been nice had we sold FCAU before its stock fell 40%, admittedly partly offset by the $4.60 per share we booked when Ferrari (RACE) was spun off earlier this year (we got 1/10 RACE share per FCAU share owned and sold them at a slight loss.) In the recent market rout I do not want to stick with Fiat Chrysler. While obviously Italian-American, it is incorporated in the Netherlands for tax reasons, which also may come under attack as European Union countries go after fiscal fiddles. Try for $6+/sh.
