The E-Mini S&P 500 September Futures contract opened inside of the previous regular trading hours (RTH) range and value today. The market rejected the POC, broke the previous low and got selling imbalanced for the rest of the day.
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To better understand this selling behavior let's take a look at the higher time frames. With looking at the Yearly VWAP with daily bars, we can see that the previous session found resistance at Yearly developing value high (DVAH) for a down move to the developing VWAP. Also, with a closer look, we can observe the confluent levels with two marked balance areas:
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A potential scenario could be a destination move to the Yearly developing value low.
Also, to mention is the Quarterly VWAP, with resistance at the DVAH and the down move to the previous Quarterly value area low close level. The globex market has been opened directly at the previous VWAP close level. Here is a potential destination move to the Quarterly developing value low possible as well.
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Moving forward to the 240 minutes volume profile chart, we can identify the resistance level with the low volume areas:
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Take a look at the monthly volume profiles and the areas we marked on this figure:
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An intra-day short position at the open or as soon as the market broke below the previous RTH-low (in next 30 min TPO period) with a stop inside of the previous value made somewhat sense.
The market seems to be blanced with possible support at the mentioned levels (Yearly DVWAP, Quarterly VAL clsoe level, Low Volume Areas). However, a destination move to the other side of the developing value (Quarterly and Yearly) is possible as well. Stay open minded for several potential scenarios.
