Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
|
|
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
Week of December 25 |
|
|
|
December 26 |
|
|
|
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index |
20.0 |
30.0 |
23.0 |
|
|
|
|
December 27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Twenty City M/M |
0.0% |
0.4 |
|
Twenty City M/M – SA |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
Twenty City Y/Y |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
|
|
|
|
Consumer Confidence |
128.1 |
129.5 |
128.0 |
Pending Home Sale Index – November |
109.3 |
109.3 |
110.0 |
|
|
|
|
December 28 |
|
|
|
International Trade in Goods – November |
-$67.6B |
-68.3 |
-67.6 |
Initial Unemployment Claims |
240K |
245 |
240 |
Wholesale Inventories (a) – November |
0.4% |
-0.5 |
|
business Inventories (a) – November |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
December 29 |
|
|
|
Chicago PMI |
61.6 |
68.9 |
63.0 |
|
|
|
|
Week of January 1 |
|
|
|
January 2 |
|
|
|
PMI Manufacturing Index – December |
55.0 |
55.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
January 3 |
|
|
|
ISM (Mfg) – December |
58.2 |
58.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Construction Spending – December |
0.7% |
1.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Auto Sales* – December |
15.5M |
17.53 |
|
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January 4 |
|
|
|
Initial Unemployment Claims |
240K |
245 |
|
ADP employment – December |
200K |
190 |
|
PMI Services Index – December |
52.4 |
52.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
January 5 |
|
|
|
ISM Services – December |
57.6 |
57.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Nonfarm Payrolls – December |
210K |
228 |
|
Private |
205 |
221 |
|
Manufacturing |
25 |
31 |
|
Unemployment |
4.1% |
4.1 |
|
Average Workweek |
34.5Hr |
34.5 |
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.2% |
0.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
International Trade – November |
-$48.1B |
-47.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Factory Orders – November |
0.8% |
0.1 |
|
Durable Goods Orders |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|
Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.4 |
0.7 |
|
|
|