Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of January 15
January 16
NY Fed Manufacturing Index – January
19
18
18
January 17
Industrial Production – December
0.3%
0.2
0.4
Capacity Utilization
77.3
77.1
77.3
Manufacturing
0.3
0.2
0.3
NAHB Index – January
73
74
73
January 18
Initial Unemployment Claims
250K
261
250
Philadelphia Fed Index
23.5
26.2
25.0
Housing Starts – December
1.270K
1.297
1.28
Building Permits
1.295
1.298
1.300
January 19
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – January (p)
97.0
95.9
97.0
Week of January 22
January 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
0.30
0.15
January 23
Richmond Fed Index
17
20
January 24
FHFA Housing Market Index – November
0.4%
0.5
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index – January
55.0
55.0
PMI Services Flash Index – January
56.0
53.7
Existing home Sales – December
5.610M
5.810
January 25
International Trade in Goods- December
-$69.0B
-70.0
Wholesale Inventories (a)
0.3%
0.8
New Home Sales – December
650K
733
Leading Indicators
0.3%
0.5
January 26
GDP – Q4 (a)
3.0%
3.2
Durable Goods Orders – December
0.9%
1.3
