EM FX ended Friday on a weak note and capped off another generally negative week. The worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday poses further downside risks to EM FX.

India reports April WPI and CPI Monday. The former is expected to rise 2.9% y/y vs. 2.5% in March, while the latter is expected to rise 4.4% y/y vs. 4.3% in March. If so, inflation would remain in the upper half of the 2-6% target range. The next RBI policy meeting is June 6, and no change is expected then.

Turkey reports April current account data Monday, and the deficit is expected at -$4.1 billion. If so, the 12-month total would rise to -$54.3 billion. This would be the highest since April 2014 and highlights the rising external vulnerabilities. March IP will be reported Wednesday, which is expected to rise 8.0% y/y vs. 9.9% in February. 

China reports April retail sales and IP Tuesday. The former is expected to rise 10.0% y/y vs. 10.1% in March, while the latter is expected to rise 6.4% y/y vs. 6.0% in March. For now, the mainland economic outlook remains solid.   

Indonesia reports April trade Tuesday. Bank Indonesia then meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 4.25%. However, the market is split. Of the 13 analysts polled by Bloomberg, seven see steady rates and 6 see a 25 bp hike. CPI rose 3.4% y/y in April, which is in the bottom half of the 3-5% target range. While this argues for steady rates, we believe that the weak rupiah may lead to a hawkish surprise. 

Czech Republic reports Q1 GDP Tuesday, which is expected to grow 4.8% y/y vs. 5.5% in Q4. Despite robust growth, price pressures remain low. As a result, the central bank has pushed out the timing of the next rate hike until Q4. The next policy meeting is June 27, no change is expected then.