Establishment Survey +215K Jobs, Household Employment Survey +101K, Part-Time Employment -760K, Labor Force +69K

Initial Reaction 

Today's job report (for July) once again showed a divergence between the household survey and the establishment survey.

The divergence was not as large as last month, but was in the same usual direction: The establishment survey was stronger than the household survey.

Household survey rose by 101,000 while the establishment survey shows an increase of 215,000 jobs. Last month the household survey showed a decline in employment of 56,000 while the establishment survey shows a gain of 233,000 jobs.

Part-Time Employment -760,000 

One huge standout in the household data was a huge drop in part-time employment. Involuntary part-time employment declined by 180,000 while voluntary part-time employment shrank by 589,000. To show the volatility in this series, last month, voluntary part-time employment rose by 519,000 while part-time for economic reasons declined by 147,000. Did 760,000 people really gain full-time employment from part-time status? I rather doubt that, but there's the number. Finally, last month's rise in voluntary part-time of 519,000 nearly matches this month's decline of 589,000. The decline of 180,000 in involuntary part-time employment was enough to knock the U-6 unemployment rate down by 0.1% to 10.5%. 

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance 

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +215,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +101,000 – Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -33,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -180,000 – Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: -589,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.0 to 5.3% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.1 to 10.4% – Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +213,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +69,000 – Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +144,000 – Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: +0.0 to 62.6 – Household Survey
  • July 2015 Employment Report 

    Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Report.

    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 215,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services, and financial activities.

    Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

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